I didn't expect that this morning!
Feb. 19th, 2008 07:44 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
bzarcherCastro's finally stepping down.
Calling it 40% odds for a Raul Castro lead government, 20% odds for a Junta appointed by their Central Assembly, 15% chance of coup, and 25% chance of elections. I will say that if they continue with Raul or another appointed leader, I doubt they'll have Fidel's resonance or charisma with the average Cubano. IF that happens, I think we'll see a major government shift sometime in the 2010s.
Calling it 40% odds for a Raul Castro lead government, 20% odds for a Junta appointed by their Central Assembly, 15% chance of coup, and 25% chance of elections. I will say that if they continue with Raul or another appointed leader, I doubt they'll have Fidel's resonance or charisma with the average Cubano. IF that happens, I think we'll see a major government shift sometime in the 2010s.
