I didn't expect that this morning!

[bzarcher]

Castro's finally stepping down.

Calling it 40% odds for a Raul Castro lead government, 20% odds for a Junta appointed by their Central Assembly, 15% chance of coup, and 25% chance of elections. I will say that if they continue with Raul or another appointed leader, I doubt they'll have Fidel's resonance or charisma with the average Cubano. IF that happens, I think we'll see a major government shift sometime in the 2010s.

Comments

[tainted-paladin.livejournal.com]

Everytime I seee Raul Castro's name, my brain immediately replaces it with "Ron Paul".

[bzarcher.livejournal.com]

That'd be...odd.

[browntreesnake.livejournal.com]

I think Hugo Chavez should annex Cuba as a colony of Venezuela.

[bzarcher.livejournal.com]

I think that'd be very amusing. Especially the part where all the Cubans shot him.

[alathaniel.livejournal.com]

Is it a bad sign when my first reaction to seeing that is "that sounds like a remarkably good plan"?

[bzarcher.livejournal.com]

Probably. :D

[flaggerx.livejournal.com]

You're probably right. Raul is no spring chicken either and I know they'd like to get rid of the embargo. But to what? Who in Cuba has enough poitical standing to assert leadership. It should be interesting.

[bzarcher.livejournal.com]

That's the question. I'm sure some of the Central Committee members would love to -try-, but doing is another matter.

And what of the nortecubanos sitting in Miami and other parts of Florida? Can't imagine they'll sit down and shut up (though I'm sure quite a few of the Cubanos who didn't leave would kinda like them to...)

[flaggerx.livejournal.com]

They don't live in Cuba anymore. I imagine a bunch of them think they're going to get back everything they lost almost 50 years ago, but I don't think so. Cuba will find it's own way, and their influence is directly dependent on the amount of money the drop.

[bzarcher.livejournal.com]

No, they don't, but it's just as you said.

It'll be an interesting fight.